Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 1.298161 1.472091 1.656384 1.865757 2.096564 2.342769 2.624791
2025-01-19 1.022231 1.253804 1.514799 1.829068 2.195449 2.607283 3.103327
2025-01-26 0.855939 1.130201 1.457514 1.872957 2.381890 2.980523 3.733009
2025-02-02 0.716120 1.017555 1.398078 1.906107 2.558132 3.357855 4.402772
2025-02-09 0.592510 0.906834 1.326518 1.915220 2.705265 3.713191 5.078198
2025-02-16 0.493589 0.813693 1.265397 1.929992 2.860388 4.091705 5.814993
2025-02-23 0.396102 0.706176 1.169605 1.885373 2.930590 4.364586 6.436480
2025-03-02 0.308710 0.597947 1.056916 1.801788 2.936417 4.549271 6.952812
2025-03-09 0.255243 0.534524 1.002988 1.798223 3.056024 4.900496 7.723926
2025-03-16 0.206946 0.470184 0.937662 1.767977 3.131131 5.191778 8.428841
2025-03-23 0.180278 0.440443 0.926171 1.823189 3.343090 5.699845 9.482256
2025-03-30 0.143628 0.382517 0.855397 1.768625 3.372175 5.930159 10.133867
2025-04-06 0.116778 0.339933 0.808627 1.754836 3.475161 6.295454 11.036069
2025-04-13 0.093422 0.298768 0.757417 1.726086 3.549688 6.621118 11.899179
2025-04-20 0.080366 0.279029 0.746782 1.772920 3.761322 7.185258 13.175610
2025-04-27 0.068466 0.258779 0.731521 1.808650 3.956055 7.734374 14.460390
2025-05-04 0.057026 0.236017 0.706335 1.820626 4.107283 8.218884 15.666108
2025-05-11 0.047736 0.216414 0.684847 1.837404 4.268763 8.731132 16.946094
2025-05-18 0.037592 0.189737 0.640098 1.796612 4.312645 9.036260 17.888495
2025-05-25 0.028175 0.160854 0.582669 1.717880 4.271087 9.181881 18.560182
2025-06-01 0.022964 0.145584 0.559223 1.715705 4.387053 9.624677 19.776876
2025-06-08 0.018074 0.128803 0.527237 1.687600 4.444436 9.959302 20.815144
2025-06-15 0.015790 0.122972 0.527576 1.741539 4.684917 10.658180 22.546189